FROM « RIGHTFUL GRUMPINESS » TO THE DEFENSE OF THE PUBLIC GOOD, YVES BRECHET* (Gov. France)

@ProgressistesPC:

http://revue-progressistes.org/2015/11/11/from-rightful-grumpiness-to-the-defense-of-the-public-good-yves-brechet

Translation from the french site :
http://revue-progressistes.org/2015/10/05/du-devoir-de-mauvaise-humeur-a-la-defense-du-bien-public-yves-brechet/

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* YVES BRÉCHET is a physicist, member of the French Academy of Sciences.

He was elected to the Academy of Sciences in 2010 at the age of forty-nine years, and it has since been one of its most listened members.

Wikipedia : https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yves_Bréchet
———————-

From the “bad humor duty” to the “defense of the public good”
YVES BRECHET

“We live in strange times … “”

Soon published…
Waiting autorisation…

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Will Germany go out from the way out of nuclear power?

(Translation from the EFN’s french blog (Environmentalists For the Nuclear) – aepn – http://www.ecolo.org)

http://aepn.blogspot.fr/2014/04/l-sortira-t-elle-de-la-sortie-du.html

atomkraft

Will Germany go out from the way out of nuclear power?

For now, Germany has not regretted its progressive phasing-out of nuclear energy yet. Of course the majority is still not convinced that it is a huge mistake and it will take time.

Past sorrows explain many things:

1) the guilt of having created a Reich that was one of the initiators of the military nuclear energy,

2) the trauma of having imagined Germany as an operation field of military nuclear missiles between East and West

3) East German guilt from having approved a communist regime which has made Chernobyl possible (great human drama, but equivalent to one week of the European deaths linked to tobacco.)

So when will people be aware of the need to return to civil nuclear power, if we really want stop fossil fuel production and reach factor 4 without outsourcing its CO2 ? With the Generation IV? Or in 2100? Or sooner than expected?

In the meantime, can we venture to predict a postponement of the judgment of the last reactor? Even given the deliquescence of the industry?

To be continued… Never say Never.

Anyway hangover is already here in Germany:

http://www.euractiv.fr/sections/energie/sortie-de-route-pour-la-transition-energetique-allemande-301392

Hopefully, this model can only be an illusion temporarily in one country, as long as it appropriates the margins of others and storage remain prohibitive (long). Its forced sales are certainly not lost for everyone; skillful especially for a very liberal country.

Nuclear power: a daring solution to [really] solve the climate change issue

Nuclear power: a daring solution to [really] solve the climate change issue

In french:
http://www.sauvonsleclimat.org/oser-le-nucleaire-pour-trouver-la-solution-au-probleme-climatique/35-fparticles/1704-oser-le-nucleaire-pour-trouver-la-solution-au-probleme-climatique.html

Written by SLC – Sauvons Le Climat (“Save the climate”, french NGO) – november 2014

Summary :

“The lates IPCC report urges governments to drastically decrease fossile fuel consumption in order to avoid the risks of severe global warming of the planet, which could be catastrophic for humanity.

Since its creation “Save the Climate” carries this message. In this context, it would be absurd, if not criminal to deprive oneself of the opportunities given by nuclear power. Renewable energies should not be regarded as a means of doing without nuclear power, but as a complementary panel of solutions to fight against greenhouse gas emissions.

In this spirit “Save the Climate”, starting from scenarios already taken into account by the IPCC, publishes a study of alternative scenarios fostering a faster development of the nuclear power in order to drastically reduce the need for the Capture and Storage of Carbon dioxyde (CSC.)
The study starts by summarizing the scenarios of reference of the IPCC wihch make it possible to limit the increase in total temperature to 2 degrees and which, with this intention, call on a massive storage of CO2 by CSC, up to 50 billion tons per year (to be compared with the current yearly emisssions of 35 billion tons) in 2100.

Two categories of scenarios were proposed and accepted by the IPCC to follow trajectories known as RCP 2.6: the category “IMAGE”, controlled by the “Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency”, and the category “MESSAGE” controlled by the “International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria”.
Only the scenarios of the category “MESSAGE” limit the storage of CO2 to 24 billion tons thanks to a massive development of the nuclear electrical production between 2060 and 2100, or to a drastic reduction of energy consumption. All the scenarios comprise a very strong contribution of solar and a strong contribution of biomass. In the scenario suggested by the IIASA, which maximizes energy consumption, 7,000 reactors of 1 GWe (Giga Watts of electricity) are built between 2060 and 2100 (a rythm lower than that achieved in France in the 1980s, when 50 reactors were built in a 15-year timespan).

The study shows that the massive use of breeder reactors would be compatible with this scenario, under the provision that the duration of reprocessing be shortened and/or the proportion of heavy-water reactors in the park of classical reactors be increased.

The technical requirements of such a development being met right now – which is not the case for CSC – the study proposes “supplied with nuclear power” alternative versions of the forementioned scenarios, by starting the strong development of nuclear power by 2020 rather than 2060, while ensuring up to 60% of energy consumption by nuclear power in 2100. It is then possible to reduce dramatically the unknown factor currently represented by CSC, since it would become possible to stabilize the concentration of CO2 in the atmospheren abd even reduce it, should this technique become affordable.

The scenario of nuclear power exit relies upon a reduction of energy consumption of more than 40%, without removing the need for CSC storage of 15 billion tons of CO2 per year, without making it possible to stabilize the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere before 2100.

On the other hand, steady development of nuclear power makes it possible to maintain energy consumption on a reasonable level, to stabilize the CO2 concentration by 2060, to drastically reduce and even remove the need for both CSC and fossile fuels several decades before the end of the century.

SLC thus invites policy makers to account for successes of France in the development of technologies of electrical production without CO2 emissions to draw an effective path towards the fight against climate change and global warming.

To reach the full summary of the study (in french):

http://sauvonsleclimat.org/images/articles/pdf_files/etudes/Motivation-scenarios-CS.pdf

Other text in english :
https://incofeee.wordpress.com/2014/11/16/to-dare-the-nuclear-full-text/

21/9 Climate March : more than 2000 events worlwide !

For the first time, people have joined worldwide to urge action against climate change. Action means local and global policies in order to drastically decrease GHG emissions and define a global emission cap at COP21 : 900-1000 GtCO2eq.

Why that ?

Here is a short summary: https://incofeee.wordpress.com/2014/06/15/climate-change-and-peak-oil-act-now-or-else/

Our resolve must not falter: we this summer has been the hottest in history: 0.8°C above the 20th century average (16.4°C), source NOAA: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/ via http://sciences.blogs.liberation.fr/home/2014/09/la-noaa-confirme-ao%C3%BBt-2014-record-de-chaud.html

So let’s keep the pressure on world leaders until COP21 next year.

Meanwhile, we’ll celebrate the fantastic opportunity to unite thousands of organizations and change the way we think and organize government and business.

Check out the photos and videos here:

http://avaaz.org/en/climate_march_media_hub1/

http://www.itele.fr/france/video/n-hulot-trop-de-conferences-ou-les-promesses-sont-restees-vaines-94150

http://www.france24.com/fr/20140921-defenseurs-lutte-rechauffement-climat-paris-environnement-onu-nicolas-hulot/

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/09/21/peoples-climate-march-live_n_5855906.html

http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/thousands-take-to-streets-for-nycs-peoples-climate-march/

Act now to prevent climate change runaway !

Join us on Sunday for the people’s climate march !

New York, Paris, Delhi, zillions of people will gather to save the climate : act now !

Come to the march next sunday : there ahas to be an event close to where you live or where you go this weekend…. find it here : https://secure.avaaz.org/fr/event/climate/

Please sign both our petitions now and pass the word along:

1. Phase out fossil fuels in Europe:

https://secure.avaaz.org/en/petition/EU_commission_president_JeanClaude_Juncker_Phase_out_fossil_fuels_and_waste_burning/

2. Switch to 100% clean, affordable, efficient energy sources (renewables and nuclear) :

https://secure.avaaz.org/en/100_clean_final/

Feel free to comment and ask questions below.

Climate change and peak oil : act now or else…

We speak about climate change a lot. But are we acting effectively ?

While scientists gather field data and run climate change simulations, time is running out. Our carbon budget is less than 900 GtCO2 (1 GtCO2 stands for one billion metric tons of carbon dioxyde). Past this threshold, chances are that anything that will happen will be far worse than what we can predict.

Problem is: we’ve already “spent” 600 out of those 900 GtCO2 ! At 20 GtCO2 per year, only 30 years to go…

But it won’t take that long to trash the climate, since CO2 emissions are not decreasing, but increasing fast instead.

Adverse consequences are already here: the average atmospheric CO2 level is beyond 400 ppm for the first time in human history. This trend towards higher carbon dioxyde concentrations in air wages several kinds of threats:

– the nutrient value of crops decreases, as shown in this study: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature13179

– ocean level rise has sped up by over a factor two since 1990. In the long run, major worldwide damage to ecosystems from sea level rise is expected to become the major environmental crisis, worsening the currently ongoing reduction of biodiversity, freshwater resources and natural land.

The graph shows how sea levels will change for four different pathways for human development and greenhouse gas pollution. The green, yellow and orange lines correspond to scenarios where it takes 10, 30, or 70 years before emissions are stabilized. The red line can be considered to represent business as usual where greenhouse gas emissions are increasing over time.

Credits: http://takvera.blogspot.fr/2011/10/scientists-estimate-sea-level-rise-for.html

 

In the meantime, low lying land and islands will be destroyed (Kiribati, Marshall, Tuvalu, Tonga …). Pacific presidents all claim the party is over:
Incidentally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has finally admitted to the reality of the peak oil. Dwindling oil extraction rate will soon end up in soaring oil prices :
Dependence on fossil fuels, initially a good bargain, is becoming a trap for people fighting to keep their independence from overwhelming oil and gas exporting superpowers.
Finally, the World Healh Organization (WHO) issued an alert on air pollution levels in 1600 cities, involving 7 million casualties each and every year:http://www.who.int/phe/health_topics/outdoorair/databases/en/

Let’s stop fossil fuels now ! 
By switching from fossil fuels to an optimal energy mix based upon affordable, clean carbon-free energy sources, including renewable and nuclear heat and electricity, we would at the same time:

– moderate and control energy costs
– create jobs everywhere
– improve air quality
– protect biodiversity, freshwater and other natural resources

– prevents conflicts and wars


 
 

Climate update: 2014 will be hotter , ice will melt faster

As spring extends its wonders across the northern hemisphere, after a cold winter over North America and Asia, and warm winter over Europe, the arctic sea ice extent is receding fast at record low levels (source http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/).

 

Figure 3. Monthly March ice extent for 1979 to 2014 shows a decline of X.X% per decade relative to the 1981 to 2010 average.||Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center|  High-resolution image

Arctic sea ice extent is a reliable indicator of long-trend global warming conditions, because the geographic situation of the northern polar cap makes it much more stable over time than the southern polar cap, subject to strongly changing wind and current conditions from year to year. The march average trend clearly shows how arctic sea ice extent is affected by the solar cycle: the minimum is reached a couple of years after the solar heating maximum of each cycle. As the current cycle (Solar Cycle 24) nears its maximum, not really a peak but rather a series of peaks separated by quieter periods*, evidence that something is happening in Northeastern Greenland is becoming stronger: the slow, regular motion of ice towards the sea, sped up fast during the last solar maximum year (2003). The same is expected to happen this year (and/or maybe next year).

Ref: http://www.livescience.com/44129-northeast-greenland-ice-sheet-melting.html

 

The problem is the following:  we are used to see large contnental icebergs forming on the west coast of Greenland, but the northeastern coast was exempt from this phenomenon due to the presence of thick sea ice along the northeastern coast. Nox that this old, thick sea ice has disappeared, there is little left to prevent the ice sheet to move towards the Greenland Sea through the lowest and thinnest of the mountain ranges surrounding the ice sheet.  Very few people expected this, including myself.

File:Topographic map of Greenland bedrock.jpg

Now it seems that someone needs to update this statement on the Greenland ice sheet Wikipedia page : “Some scientists predict that climate change may be near a “tipping point” where the entire ice sheet will melt in about 2,000 years.”

For all we know, that could very well be 200 years, which would be bad news for sea-level residents, since every chunk of continental ice reaching the sea immediately makes sea level rise. This means a 7-meter level rise over a few centuries: that is not sustainable!

So please tell your political representatives to STOP fossil fuels NOW, including shale gas and oil, before they destroy our coasts !

* real time information about solar activity and solar storms is available from spaceweather.com